The global economy will continue to recover in 2022. The pandemic is again slowing down growth in many places. “The global economic recovery is continuing” – with this good news the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began its current outlook on the global economy. However, interrupted supply chains and renewed corona waves had a negative impact on the prospects for 2021.
Analysts lowered expectations for the current year. Global economic output was now estimated at 5.9 percent, 0.1 percentage points less than in July 2021. The outlook for 2022, however, remained unchanged and has even increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the April analysis.
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These countries will grow the fastest in 2022
The IMF expects global economic output to increase by 4.9 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year. Accordingly, the emerging economies and developing countries will primarily contribute to the increase. The experts calculated growth of 5.1 percent for them. The leading industrial nations remained well below this at 4.5 percent – just like in 2021 (5.2 vs. 6.4 percent) and 2020 (minus 2.1 vs. minus 4.5 percent).
According to the IMF, these ten countries will grow particularly strongly in 2022:
For its outlook for 2022, the IMF has selected 16 national economies as examples. Among them, France came tenth in terms of expected economic growth with 3.9 percent. Our neighbor is thus well below the forecasts for the developed industrial nations (4.5 percent) and recorded a significant decline compared to the current year. According to the IMF, France will perform slightly above average in 2021 (6.3 vs. 5.2 percent). In 2020, the French economy collapsed by 8.0 percent. The photo shows the Stock Exchange in the French city of Bordeaux.
The IMF analysts’ expectations for Mexico are somewhat better than for France. They expected an increase of 4.0 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year. 2021 will probably close 6.2 percent above the first year of the pandemic. At that time, Mexico’s economic output had fallen by 8.3 percent. That was four times worse than the IMF average for emerging and developing economies.
Germany came in eighth among the selected countries in the IMF ranking. The experts predict growth of 4.6 percent for 2022. This puts the Federal Republic just above the average values for the developed countries (4.5 percent) and the euro zone (4.3 percent). Things looked very different in 2021: Here the IMF expected a below-average result of 3.1 percent. In 2020, Germany was at minus 4.6 percent, around the average for the developed countries (minus 4.5 percent).
#7 Saudi Arabia
In times of sharply rising oil prices in 2022, Saudi Arabia comes in seventh with 4.8 percent growth, ahead of Germany. For 2021, the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook” only expected an increase of 2.8 percent. In 2020, Saudi Arabia was 4.1 percent below the previous year’s result.
In the forecast for 2022, Canada comes exactly to the expected global average increase of 4.9 percent. That meant sixth place among the 16 selected countries. Compared to 2021 (5.7 percent), however, the increase would decrease slightly.
#5 United Kingdom
The United Kingdom had experienced the second largest slump among the sample countries in 2020. According to the IMF, economic output fell by 9.8 percent. Analysts expected growth of 6.8 percent in 2021 and 5.0 percent in 2022. That meant fifth place.
#4 United States
The USA comes second among the western countries in the ranking for growth in 2022 with 5.2 percent, globally it ranks fourth. Here, too, the IMF expects a slight weakening, because a balance of plus 6.0 percent was expected in 2021. According to the information, the economic output of the United States had decreased by 3.4 percent in 2020 – significantly less than among the so-called developed nations as a whole (minus 4.5 percent).
In 2020, China was the only country on the IMF list that was able to record economic growth despite the pandemic. In 2021, the People’s Republic is expected to overtake all but one country with an increase of 8.0 percent. According to the forecast, China will have to give way to two countries by 2022. The IMF then expects a rate of increase of only 5.6 percent.
Spain could grow faster in 2022 than any western industrial nation on the IMF list – if the forecast is correct. Analysts recently expected the Spanish economy to be 6.4 percent above the 2021 result. Spain could thus gain against the global trend. However, the southern European country also has a large deficit to catch up on. It had the biggest slump in 2020 at minus 10.8 percent.
In India, too, economic output will not increase as strongly in 2022 as it did in 2021. But this is happening at such a high level that none of the other 15 countries in the IMF rankings can keep up. According to the forecast, India’s economy will be 8.5 percent higher in 2022 than in 2021 (9.5 percent). The IMF had recorded a decline in Indian economic output of 7.3 percent in 2020. The average value for developing countries and emerging economies at that time was just minus 2.1 percent. The photo shows the stock exchange in the Indian city of Mumbai.